Risk levels reflect the estimated probability of major external military engagement within the next 5-10 years based on current trajectories and historical precedents.
See also countries to live assestment
Global Powers Risk Assessment
Decline Indicators and External War Risk Analysis
| Rank | Country/Region | Current Power Position | Signs of Relative Decline | Military Reach/Global Influence | Historical Analogy | External War Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇷🇺 Russia | Regional power with nuclear capability | Economic sanctions impact, demographic decline, military losses in Ukraine, brain drain | High regional, medium global (nuclear deterrent) | Late Soviet Union (1980s) | VERY HIGH Currently in major conflict |
| 2 | 🇺🇸 USA | Global superpower (declining hegemony) | Political polarization, infrastructure decay, relative economic decline, military overextension | Very high globally | British Empire (1920s-1950s) | HIGH Interventions during power transitions |
| 3 | 🇨🇳 China | Rising power facing constraints | Slowing economic growth, demographic crisis, debt levels, international pushback | High regionally, growing globally | Imperial Germany (1900-1914) | MODERATE-HIGH Taiwan, South China Sea tensions |
| 4 | 🇮🇱 Israel | Regional military power | Internal political crisis, international isolation, unsustainable security posture | Very high regionally, limited globally | Sparta (constant military mobilization) | HIGH Multiple conflicts, preemptive doctrine |
| 5 | 🇫🇷 France | Middle power with global reach | Declining influence in Africa, domestic unrest, economic challenges | Medium globally (military bases, diplomatic network) | France (1960s-1980s decolonization) | MODERATE Active in African interventions |
| 6 | 🇬🇧 UK | Former global empire, financial center | Economic stagnation post-Brexit, reduced military capacity, diplomatic isolation | Medium globally (soft power, intelligence) | Austria-Hungary (post-1867) | LOW-MODERATE Limited military capacity |
| 7 | 🇮🇳 India | Rising regional power | Economic inequality, social tensions, infrastructure gaps | High regionally, limited globally | Mughal Empire (18th century fragmentation) | MODERATE Border disputes China, Pakistan |
| 8 | 🇹🇷 Turkey | Regional power, NATO member | Economic crisis, currency collapse, authoritarian drift, regional overextension | High regionally, medium globally | Late Ottoman Empire (19th century) | HIGH Multiple conflicts, aggressive foreign policy |
| 9 | 🇮🇷 Iran | Regional power under sanctions | Severe economic sanctions, domestic unrest, international isolation, proxy war costs | High regionally (proxy networks), limited globally | Qajar Persia (19th century decline) | MODERATE-HIGH Nuclear tensions, proxy conflicts |
| 10 | 🇵🇰 Pakistan | Nuclear power, regional military force | Economic crisis, political instability, terrorism threats, climate vulnerabilities | High regionally, limited globally | Mughal Empire (late 17th century fragmentation) | MODERATE Nuclear capability, India tensions |
| 11 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | Regional military power | Economic crisis, authoritarian consolidation, demographic pressures, water scarcity | Medium regionally, limited globally | Mamluk Sultanate (pre-Ottoman conquest) | MODERATE Regional interventions, internal pressures |
| 12 | 🇯🇵 Japan | Economic power, pacifist constitution | Demographic collapse, economic stagnation, debt burden | High economically, low militarily | Tokugawa Japan (late period isolation) | LOW Constitutional constraints, pacifist culture |
Key Analysis Points
🔴 High-Risk Patterns
- Current conflicts: Russia, Israel, Turkey already engaged in major military operations
- Hegemonic transition: USA facing relative decline while maintaining global commitments
- Rising power constraints: China hitting demographic and economic growth limits
- Military capability + insecurity: Dangerous combination of power and perceived threats
🟡 Moderate Risk Factors
- Regional power competition: India’s ongoing border disputes, Pakistan’s tensions with neighbors
- Post-colonial interventions: France maintaining influence through military presence
- Gradual decline management: UK’s measured retreat from global commitments
- Sanctions and isolation: Iran’s proxy network strategy under economic pressure
🟢 Risk Mitigation Factors
- Constitutional constraints: Japan’s pacifist framework limiting military options
- Limited projection capacity: Geographic and resource constraints on power projection
- Strong institutions: Democratic systems providing checks on executive power
- Economic interdependence: Trade relationships creating mutual vulnerability to conflict
📊 Assessment Methodology
This analysis considers both capability (military and economic power projection) and propensity (historical patterns, current domestic pressures, strategic culture) for external conflict during periods of relative decline or power transition. Risk levels reflect the estimated probability of major external military engagement within the next 5-10 years based on current trajectories and historical precedents.
This overview, developed with input from Claude.ai and ChatGPT, does not consider the potential effects of climate change or the associated risk of increased conflict.
Climate Migration and Geopolitical Tensions
Climate change is projected to drive unprecedented levels of human displacement as rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and shifting ecological zones render regions uninhabitable. These movements will not respect political borders, creating sudden demographic shifts that strain host communities, alter political balances, and challenge existing infrastructure. In regions with fragile governance or existing social divisions, such migration pressures can act as a catalyst for unrest, heightening tensions between communities and increasing the likelihood of political instability or armed conflict.
Resource Scarcity as a Strategic Pressure Point
As climate change disrupts agricultural production, depletes freshwater supplies, and increases competition over arable land, states may face acute shortages of essential resources. This scarcity can intensify rivalries both within and between nations, especially in areas where resources are already unevenly distributed or strategically contested. Historical patterns suggest that such competition can escalate into open conflict when combined with economic decline, nationalist rhetoric, or territorial disputes. In the context of today’s global powers, climate-related resource pressures could exacerbate existing geopolitical rivalries, making the risk of conflict significantly higher than traditional security analyses might suggest.
Darfur, Sudan (2003–present): Drought increased competition over water and grazing land, fueling ethnic violence and a major humanitarian crisis.
Syria (2011–present): Severe drought forced rural migration to cities, worsening unemployment and unrest that helped spark civil war.
Yemen (2014–present): Extreme water scarcity intensified local conflicts and worsened the humanitarian crisis amid ongoing war.
Updated July 2025